NORWECOM.E2E simulation, mackerel distribution 2010-2069

Climate change represents a potential threat for sustainable growth in aquaculture and fisheries worldwide. In ClimeFish, the growth of the most important and the less resilient cultured and wild caught fish and shellfish species in Europe during the RCP4.5 and the 8.5 IPCC scenarios are simulated. The project addresses three production sectors: marine aquaculture, marine fisheries and lake and pond production in a total of 16 case studies, involving more than 25 species. These forecasts for production scenarios will serve as input to socio-economic analysis and identify risks and opportunities regarding climate changes. For the Northeast Atlantic case study, simulations have been performed by the NORWECOM.E2E model. NORWECOM.E2E is a fully coupled model system consisting of a NPZD model for lower trophic levels, and individual based models for C. finmarchicus and the pelagic fish. NORWECOM.E2E is one of very few bottom-up models world-wide where IBMs for different trophic levels are two-way coupled and used to simulate food web dynamics of a large regional sea, and the only model system to run for the Norwegian Sea. Due to the extensive simulation time needed, is it not possible to get a precise estimate of model uncertainty. Instead, model variability through the 10 years simulation periods are shown. The fish stocks are in all periods initiated with number-at-age and weight-at-age for 2015 (mackerel and blue whiting) or 2012 (herring) from analytic assessments (ICES 2017). Thus, since the starting point for fish stocks are the same, the resulting changes during the ten years long simulation must be viewed as a possible stock changes due to changing environmental conditions. NORWECOM.E2E is forced with climate from the climate model NORESM using the RC4.5 IPCC climate scenario, downscaled with the ocean model ROMS for five simulation periods (year 2010-2019, 2015-2015, 2025-2034, 2045-2054 and 2060-2069). The RCP4.5 scenario in 2060-2069 represents RCP8.5 in 2045-2055 and is termed “RCP8.5” in the ClimeFish project report D3.3. For each simulation year is there a one year of spin-up to reduce the effect of starting conditions influencing the results. Results are based on the next 10 consecutive years. The climate forcing used in the simulations represents 1 possible future climate evolution out of many available simulations, and using single model simulations as forecasts of future conditions should be viewed with an appropriate degree of caution. The dataset includes netcdf files with selected physical and biogeochemical parameters, and 4D distribution of Calanus finmarchicus and mackerel superindividuals and attributes. 5 periods are simulated: 2010-2019, 2015-2024, 2025-2034, 2045-2055, 2060-2069

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Principal Investigator Solfrid Sætre Hjøllo
Data Curator Arnfinn Morvik
Last Updated May 20, 2021, 13:40 (+0200)
Created May 20, 2021, 13:40 (+0200)
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